Symmetric Strategy Improvement

Symmetry is inherent in the definition of most of the two-player zero-sum games, including parity, mean-payoff, and discounted-payoff games. It is therefore quite surprising that no symmetric analysis techniques for these games exist. We develop a novel symmetric strategy improvement algorithm where, in each iteration, the strategies of both players are improved simultaneously. We show that symmetric strategy improvement defies Friedmann's traps, which shook the belief in the potential of classic strategy improvement to be polynomial

Climate change under a scenario near 1.5° C of global warming: Monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise

We present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) using MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard scenarios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations pathways currently discussed. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIMBER-3α to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st century slightly above 1.5 °C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convection that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface cooling rate by almost 50%. Steric sea level rise under the RCP3-PD scenario continues for 200 years after the peak in surface air temperatures, stabilizing around 2250 at 30 cm. This contrasts with around 1.3 m of steric sea level rise by 2250, and 2 m by 2500, under the highest scenario, RCP8.5. Maximum oceanic warming at intermediate depth (300–800 m) is found to exceed that of the sea surface by the second half of the 21st century under RCP3-PD. This intermediate-depth warming persists for centuries even after surface temperatures have returned to present-day values, with potential consequences for marine ecosystems, oceanic methane hydrates, and ice-shelf stability. Due to an enhanced land-ocean temperature contrast, all scenarios yield an intensification of monsoon rainfall under global warming

Optimal Tableaux Method for Constructive Satisfiability Testing and Model Synthesis in the Alternating-time Temporal Logic ATL+

We develop a sound, complete and practically implementable tableaux-based decision method for constructive satisfiability testing and model synthesis in the fragment ATL+ of the full Alternating time temporal logic ATL*. The method extends in an essential way a previously developed tableaux-based decision method for ATL and works in 2EXPTIME, which is the optimal worst case complexity of the satisfiability problem for ATL+ . We also discuss how suitable parametrizations and syntactic restrictions on the class of input ATL+ formulae can reduce the complexity of the satisfiability problem.Comment: 45 page

Intensification of very wet monsoon seasons in India under global warming

Rainfall-intense summer monsoon seasons on the Indian subcontinent that are exceeding long-term averages cause widespread floods and landslides. Here we show that the latest generation of coupled climate models robustly project an intensification of very rainfall-intense seasons (June–September). Under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP5-8.5, very wet monsoon seasons as observed in only 5 years in the period 1965–2015 are projected to occur 8 times more often in 2050–2100 in the multi-model average. Under SSP2-4.5, these seasons become only a factor of 6 times more frequent, showing that even modest efforts to mitigate climate change can have a strong impact on the frequency of very strong rainfall seasons. Besides, we find that the increasing risk of extreme seasonal rainfall is accompanied by a shift from days with light rainfall to days with moderate or heavy rainfall. Additionally, the number of wet days is projected to increase. © 2022. The Authors

Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models

The Indian summer monsoon is an integral part of the global climate system. As its seasonal rainfall plays a crucial role in India's agriculture and shapes many other aspects of life, it affects the livelihood of a fifth of the world's population. It is therefore highly relevant to assess its change under potential future climate change. Global climate models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) indicated a consistent increase in monsoon rainfall and its variability under global warming. Since the range of the results of CMIP5 was still large and the confidence in the models was limited due to partly poor representation of observed rainfall, the updates within the latest generation of climate models in CMIP6 are of interest. Here, we analyze 32 models of the latest CMIP6 exercise with regard to their annual mean monsoon rainfall and its variability. All of these models show a substantial increase in June-to-September (JJAS) mean rainfall under unabated climate change (SSP5-8.5) and most do also for the other three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways analyzed (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0). Moreover, the simulation ensemble indicates a linear dependence of rainfall on global mean temperature with a high agreement between the models independent of the SSP if global warming is the dominant forcing of the monsoon dynamics as it is in the 21st century; the multi-model mean for JJAS projects an increase of 0.33 mm d−1 and 5.3 % per kelvin of global warming. This is significantly higher than in the CMIP5 projections. Most models project that the increase will contribute to the precipitation especially in the Himalaya region and to the northeast of the Bay of Bengal, as well as the west coast of India. Interannual variability is found to be increasing in the higher-warming scenarios by almost all models. The CMIP6 simulations largely confirm the findings from CMIP5 models, but show an increased robustness across models with reduced uncertainties and updated magnitudes towards a stronger increase in monsoon rainfall

Infection as a Trigger for Portal Hypertension

BACKGROUND Microbial infections are a relevant problem for patients with liver cirrhosis. Different types of bacteria are responsible for different kinds of infections: Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae are frequently observed in spontaneous bacterial peritonitis or urinary tract infections, and Streptococcus pneumoniae and Mycoplasma pneumoniae in pulmonary infections. Mortality is up to 4-fold higher in infected patients with liver cirrhosis than in patients without infections. Key Messages: Infections in patients with liver cirrhosis are due to three major reasons: bacterial translocation, immune deficiency and an increased incidence of systemic infections. Nonparenchymal liver cells like Kupffer cells, sinusoidal endothelial cells and hepatic stellate cells are the first liver cells to come into contact with microbial products when systemic infection or bacterial translocation occurs. Kupffer cell (KC) activation by Toll-like receptor (TLR) agonists and endothelial sinusoidal dysfunction have been shown to be important mechanisms increasing portal pressure following intraperitoneal lipopolysaccharide pretreatment in cirrhotic rat livers. Reduced intrahepatic vasodilation and increased intrahepatic vasoconstriction are the relevant pathophysiological pathways. Thromboxane A2 and leukotriene (LT) C4/D4 have been identified as important vasoconstrictors. Accordingly, treatment with montelukast to inhibit the cysteinyl-LT1 receptor reduced portal pressure in cirrhotic rat livers. Clinical studies have demonstrated that activation of KCs, estimated by the amount of soluble CD163 in the blood, correlates with the risk for variceal bleeding. Additionally, intestinal decontamination with rifaximin in patients with alcohol-associated liver cirrhosis reduced the portal pressure and the risk for variceal bleeding. CONCLUSIONS TLR activation of nonparenchymal liver cells by pathogens results in portal hypertension. This might explain the pathophysiologic correlation between microbial infections and portal hypertension in patients with liver cirrhosis. These findings are the basis for both better risk stratifying and new treatment options, such as specific inhibition of TLR for patients with liver cirrhosis and portal hypertension

Efficient approximation of optimal control for continuous-time Markov games

We study the time-bounded reachability problem for continuous-time Markov decision processes (CTMDPs) and games (CTMGs). Existing techniques for this problem use discretisation techniques to partition time into discrete intervals of size ε, and optimal control is approximated for each interval separately. Current techniques provide an accuracy of on each interval, which leads to an infeasibly large number of intervals. We propose a sequence of approximations that achieve accuracies of , , and , that allow us to drastically reduce the number of intervals that are considered. For CTMDPs, the performance of the resulting algorithms is comparable to the heuristic approach given by Buchholz and Schulz, while also being theoretically justified. All of our results generalise to CTMGs, where our results yield the first practically implementable algorithms for this problem. We also provide memoryless strategies for both players that achieve similar error bounds

Persistent clinical efficacy and safety of anti-tumour necrosis factor \textgreeka therapy with infliximab in patients with ankylosing spondylitis over 5 years: evidence for different types of response

Background: There is insufficient evidence for the long-term efficacy and safety of anti-tumour necrosis factor therapy in patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS). This is the first report on the treatment with infliximab over 5 years.Methods: As part of a multicentre randomised trial, 69 patients with active AS at baseline (BL) have been continuously treated with infliximab (5 mg/kg i.v. every 6 weeks)---except for a short discontinuation after 3 years (FU1). The primary outcome of this extension was remission according to the ASsessment in Ankylosing Spondylitis (ASAS) criteria at the end of year 5 of the study (FU2).Results: Of the 43 patients who completed year 3, 42 agreed to continue, 38 of which (90.5%) finished year 5 (55% of 69 initially). Partial clinical remission was achieved in 13 of 38 patients (34.2%) at FU1 and FU2. At FU2, the mean Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) was 2.5±1.9 (BL:6.4, FU1:2.5). BASDAI values <4 were seen in 79% of patients at both, FU1 and FU2. ASAS 20% and 40% responses were seen in 32 (84%) and 24 (63%) patients at FU2, respectively. Most patients classified as non-responders at FU2 were part-time responders, as all but one patient achieved an ASAS 20% response at least once within the last 2 years. Three types of responders were identified. No major side effects occurred during years 4 and 5 of infliximab therapy.Conclusions: Infliximab is safe and efficacious in AS patients over 5 years. The majority of the patients remained on treatment and had rather persistent levels of low disease activity. Different response types could be identified

Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models

The possibility of an impact of global warming on the Indian monsoon is of critical importance for the large population of this region. Future projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP-3) showed a wide range of trends with varying magnitude and sign across models. Here the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is evaluated in 20 CMIP-5 models for the period 1850 to 2100. In the new generation of climate models, a consistent increase in seasonal mean rainfall during the summer monsoon periods arises. All models simulate stronger seasonal mean rainfall in the future compared to the historic period under the strongest warming scenario RCP-8.5. Increase in seasonal mean rainfall is the largest for the RCP-8.5 scenario compared to other RCPs. Most of the models show a northward shift in monsoon circulation by the end of the 21st century compared to the historic period under the RCP-8.5 scenario. The interannual variability of the Indian monsoon rainfall also shows a consistent positive trend under unabated global warming. Since both the long-term increase in monsoon rainfall as well as the increase in interannual variability in the future is robust across a wide range of models, some confidence can be attributed to these projected trends